Sunday, February 16, 2014

Super Nerd Sunday Presents: Freemium Hazard!



The recent Dungeon Keeper mobile game has brought the debate on how free-to-play games can effectively structure their revenue models to the forefront of the gaming media's id, but I don't want to discuss that at length.  First, I haven't played it, so I can only reiterate things I've heard other people say.  Second, I don't find it terribly instructive: without sounding too old-hat, the move by Mythic Entertainment is just another iteration on the trend that Zynga set in motion back in 2009.  Savvy investors know how that's going: the insane hubris Zynga trotted out at the height of their success is now layered in laughable irony, and "old fuddies" like me, who saw Zynga as the harbinger of a flash-in-the-pan trend that couldn't sustain itself are being redeemed somewhat.  In 2011, Zynga lost nearly half a million dollars, representing almost a fifth of its total assets, and things haven't looked good for them since then.  Mythic's transparent money grab seems like the death knell of a once revolutionary studio, the swan song of the people who brought us Dark Age of Camelot and introduced the notions of asymmetric "realm PvP" that would mature so elegantly in later MMORPGs.  But I'm coming dangerously close to discussing this topic at length.

What I really want to talk about is another free-to-play model that seems to be working quite well, the model that Mechwarrior: Online and Neverwinter have adopted.

This is a bit of a controversial statement.  MWO has made some changes to their monetization strategy of late that have derailed large portions of their base entirely, and Neverwinter, while self-sustaining, isn't going to tempt any major buyouts any time soon.  But both of these titles manage to trickle out a steady flow of content, and manage to maintain a dedicated player base willing to spend bits of their hard earned cash on things they really don't need to for the sake of "game." 

In Neverwinter's case, you can trace developer Cryptic Studio's model back to Bioware's Knights of the Old Republic freemium switch.  Cryptic more or less copied Bioware's model play for play, adding in a little more grind, skipping the subscription based launch model that Bioware employed for the first year of the game's life, (indeed, Bioware's launch might've been the last successful retail/subscription launch in MMO history, unless The Elder Scrolls: Online manages to turn its hardcore niche audience into broad appeal) and making character experience piss-easy to gain (unlike Bioware, who curtailed experience gain severely to encourage "player transactions").  There's a tried and true method at work, tied to a beloved intellectual property with a dedicated user base.  The parallels are pretty apparent, and the fan service appears to be paying off: Cryptic is steadily releasing new content without having to push its players into paying for "fun times."  In fact, they've set up a marketplace that effectively allows players to sell their hard earned in-game currency (called Astral Diamonds, earned by completing repetitive daily tasks that sometimes take hours to finish) to other players for currency purchased with real world money (called Zen, earned by spending money using a credit card or Paypal account).  In fact, I've reached the "end-game" of Neverwinter without spending a dime, and I've had a pretty good about my experience the whole time.

I can't say the same about Mechwarrior: Online, and that's becoming a real problem.  At first, I perceived my real-world money purchases in MWO as tantamount to a retail purchase, or a late phase Kickstarter donation: this is the amount of money I was willing to give them for the game they made, I'm enjoying it, keep it up, so on, so forth.  I bought some fancy paint jobs for my giant walking death robots, some extra parking spaces for my giant walking death robots.  I even bought a special, real-world-money-only giant walking death robot.  I donated some money to a cancer research fund and got a special giant walking death robot in return.  Then, the Pheonix mechs rolled out.

I was intrigued, heck, even excited, by the notion of Pheonix packages.  Hero-like mechs that came with mechbays for a solid package price seemed like a great idea, and while $80 was a little steep for me, $40 seemed totally reasonable.  When the mechs dropped, I had a good time playing with my sudden bounty of new toys, after buying my new mechs chassis by chassis for so long.  As time stretched on, even as new chasses started to become available for normal in-game currency, I kept grinding away, but something was missing.  The dynamic gameplay and shifting metagame of MWO had been eroded by a sudden flood of new content, followed by a drought.  The Pheonix mech packages were, more or less, all that Pirahna had on offer.

They released some other, newer Pheonix mechs to try and shake things up again, but the chasses were too similar in terms of size, appearance and play.  In the end, the Pheonix package did little to invigorate the game, but landed Pirahna a solid windfall of cash.  No one begrudged them: Pirahna did something incredible by securing the release of "Unseen" mechs, chassis archetypes previously rendered unusable by intellectual property disputes.  They deserved their money.  They delivered on their promise, and even tossed in some bonus goodies to show players they were glad for all the support they received: paint jobs, dashboard goodies, all kinds of nice crud.

Then came the Clan Mech announcement.

The Pheonix Mechs were, in and of themselves, something of a surprise, an unveiling of a benchmark achievement in the Mechwarrior video game continuum.  Their release was a victory for fans.  The Clan mechs, on the other hand, have been an expectation in MWO from day one: Pirahna said that they'd be setting the game during the Clan invasion, and they made it clear that Clan mechs would be appearing at some point vaguely analogous with the Battletech timeline from the era they chose.  Players knew that Clan mechs were coming.  They knew the mechs already, knew which ones they wanted and why, plotted out their purchases in advance.  So there was something a little iffy about Pirahna's Clan mech announcement, which proudly declared that players could purchase Clan mechs the same way they bought their Pheonix mechs!  At a significant mark-up!  With a much more significant delay!  And no solid information on just how Clan tech would work in the game!

Players were outraged by what they perceived as a blind money grab on the part of MWO's developers and publisher.  They saw the move as a desperate attempt to buy time to complete work on a game which had repeatedly missed benchmarks, without delivering any immediate content.  Worst of all was a set of $500 "unique" gold Clan mechs, a clear ploy to entice "whales," as freemium designers call them, solitary customers who pour massive sums of money into the structure of free-to-play games.  MWO lives on these whales, people who own every hero mech, who purchase every mech color, but these purchases are normally iterated over the course of months, not presented in a single lump sum.  In attempting to shore up support for their game, the designers of MWO alienated a large portion of their core base.

They've been working to earn that group back, delivering on much needed and long promised UI updates and dropping some neat new surprises in the form of unexpected maps and mechs, but by and large MWO has lost a great deal of goodwill, and finds itself in a place where it needs to re-earn its players' respect.  The surprise release of the Firestarter mech is a step in the right direction, as is the recent return to "Double XP weekend," a move that literally costs Piranha nothing, but encourages players to hop back into the game again.  Even so the money grab that the Clan mech sale represented was a damning move and a clear warning to other freemium designers: it's dangerous to ask players to bet on future content, and it's poor form to ask them to spend money on features that are untested, undefined, and unproven, especially when you're lagging behind on presenting already promised, much needed content updates.  It was, in a very real sense, a failed proof-of-concept of Zynga's business model in a non-native context.  Removed from the realm of microtransactions, the expectations of freemium game designers and publishers become transparent, and the client who would gladly plunk down thirty dollars each month for a new hero mech and a new camo pattern will bark righteous indignation at being asked to plunk all that money down at once for a one-of-a-kind piece of in-game hardware.

I hope that MWO survives.  It's a solid game, and it fills a wonderful niche that I don't think Hawken will ever come close to engaging completely.  I still play it, though nowhere near as religiously as I used to.  The atrophied veteran player base is readily evident, and changes to major game systems (like grouping pre-made 12 man groups into games with randomly assembled opponents) constitute real threats to the game's continued viability.  I get the sense that their future will become quite clear over the next few months, as Pirahna finds their path and chooses between the pay-to-win models that have landed Mythic and Zynga in such hot water, or to return to the steady release of content and community events that have served other true free-to-play designers, like Cryptic, so well, that served Pirahna so well in the past.

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